What is the current probability for "Will Rudy Salas advance from the CA-22 Primary?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 2, 2026. 39 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Rudy Salas advance from the CA-22 Primary?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 30617.1% and 29.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Rudy Salas advance from the CA-22 Primary?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Rudy Salas advance from the CA-22 Primary?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Rudy Salas advance from the CA-22 Primary?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 1/5¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $961.534·Closes Jun 2, 2026·39d remaining

0x80bca855bd6c19563b25144c980ca4fe11eab6e6c40efbe07f4b675a1b316970

7-day price399 snapshots · 4 regime

48¢3¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 24

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 30617.1%

IY (No) 29.3%

Adj IY 15309%

CRI 32

Overround 1.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	30617.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	29.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	15309%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 11:00:46 AM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x80bca855bd6c19563b25144c980ca4fe11eab6e6c40efbe07f4b675a1b316970 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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