Spread: Club Tijuana (-2.5)

Club Tijuana at -2.5 goals is trading at an extremely depressed 11¢ with only 6 days to expiry, suggesting the market assigns just 11% probability to a 3+ goal Tijuana victory. The astronomical 49,876% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing relative to the tight 11¢ bid-ask spread, though the $29.41 daily volume and $85.8k open interest indicate dangerously low liquidity for a market with 8703% realized volatility. The sharp 3-cent price decline over 7 days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 8 suggests this contract has become a high-variance lottery ticket as the April 22 match approaches.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for April 22 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Club Tijuana" if Club Tijuana win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "CF Pachuca". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligamx.net. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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