Will Bournemouth finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Bournemouth's top-4 finish probability is priced at an extreme discount on Polymarket (1¢) versus Kalshi (4¢), representing a notable 3-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap that favors the Kalshi contract. The market shows virtually no liquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.85M in open interest, suggesting the spread is artificially tight and execution would be difficult at posted prices. At 1% implied probability, this reflects near-zero market conviction in Bournemouth's ability to sustain a top-4 finish over a full season, though the Kalshi pricing suggests some traders view this as oversold.

Resolution rules

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings for the 2025–26 season. If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official English Premier League tiebreaking procedures. If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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