Will Lawrence Kellogg advance to the general election for WA-03?

Lawrence Kellogg's chances of advancing to the general election have surged dramatically, rising from 9¢ to 20¢ over seven days, though the market remains extremely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $3,545 in open interest. The 14¢ spread and extraordinarily high implied yield of 1339% on the "Yes" side suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing, likely reflecting sparse trading activity rather than fundamental conviction. With 109 days until the August 4, 2026 primary and a realized volatility of 1259%, this market appears highly speculative and should be approached cautiously given the thin liquidity and extreme price sensitivity to any new information.

Resolution rules

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-03 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.

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