What is the current probability for "Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 27¢ (27% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 63 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1575.4% and 215.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

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27¢

Bid/Ask 24/29¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $498.741·OI $1,084.48·Closes Jun 30, 2026·63d remaining

0xac6cdcff08221e3167862de7f05310714870e9c0a9390ffa678c670a61d8f2ab

7-day price31 snapshots · 12 regime

27¢27¢ current

Apr 2720¢Apr 27

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1575.4%

IY (No) 215.5%

Adj IY 1575%

CRI 3

RV 1546%

VR 3.20

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1575.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	215.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1575%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1546%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.20	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/28/2026, 8:49:23 AM

Indicators computed 4/28/2026, 8:38:26 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xac6cdcff08221e3167862de7f05310714870e9c0a9390ffa678c670a61d8f2ab yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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