Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30
Leader sits at 19% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Aristotle
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
ForecastEx
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$49
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: Aristotle
0xd5d09b…56a2
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: CBOE
0xe751b3…fc84
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: ForecastEx
0xac6cdc…f2ab
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: Small Exchange
0x7ddaa8…2e74
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that at least one Digital Commodity Market (DCM) will self-certify sports event contracts for the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards category by June 30, 2026. The 63% probability suggests markets perceive meaningful but uncertain regulatory acceptance. Current trading concentrates on specific sports properties—particularly the 151st Kentucky Derby at 32¢ and NHL on ESPN at 36¢—indicating uncertainty about which event will ultimately qualify. The probability would rise if a DCM formally announces self-certification plans or if regulatory guidance explicitly permits sports Emmy broadcasts as eligible contracts. It would fall if regulators issue stricter guidance limiting self-certification authority. The critical resolution date arrives when the Emmy Awards air and market operators make formal certification decisions, likely in late May or early June 2026.
- ›No DCM has yet announced formal self-certification of a sports Emmy contract as of May 3, 2026, suggesting regulatory or operational hurdles remain
- ›Trading volume is modest ($824–$3,418 per contract in 24 hours), indicating limited institutional conviction or market participation
- ›The leading contract (Kentucky Derby at 32¢) reflects fragmentation across multiple eligible events rather than consensus on a single winner
- ›June 30 deadline provides approximately 8 weeks for DCMs to navigate regulatory approval and technical implementation
- ›Self-certification authority itself depends on whether regulators have clarified DCM permissions for Emmy-related sports contracts
What moved the line
- Jun 17Aristotle↓10pp30→20¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Small Exchange↓5pp10→5¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Aristotle↓4pp34→30¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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