What is the current probability for "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 70¢ (70% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 60.5% and 362.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 70% probability that Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20?. This contract trades at 70¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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70¢

Bid/Ask 49/91¢·Spread 42¢·Vol $0·OI $231.837·Closes Jan 1, 2027·246d remaining

0xb6ad0a71d7219e069c70ac05491a47b905c420a7854898b200cd20d5a9965f94

7-day price1360 snapshots · 5 regime

76¢71¢ current

Apr 843¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Rankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 60.5%

IY (No) 362.8%

Adj IY 363%

CRI 2

RV 814%

VR 9.76

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	60.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	362.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	363%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	814%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	9.76	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

42¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 5:23:38 PM

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 5:08:27 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xb6ad0a71d7219e069c70ac05491a47b905c420a7854898b200cd20d5a9965f94 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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