Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat?

The Republican contract at 23¢ implies a heavily Democratic-favored race in Virginia's 1st district, with the No side offering only a 54.2% implied yield versus an extreme 607.9% yield on the Yes side—a 7.73x volatility ratio suggesting substantial uncertainty or potential mispricing. With $8.5M in open interest but just $51.67 in 24-hour volume and a 5¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained relative to the market size, raising execution risk for larger positions. The 1,906% realized volatility and neutral regime score (0.5) indicate this market has experienced wild swings despite 201 days to expiry, warranting caution about the reliability of the current 23¢ price as a true probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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