Will Aleksandr Logunov win the 2026 Fields Medal?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $466k, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 12¢ spread suggesting thin order books. The 43¢-to-26¢ price collapse over seven days combined with realized volatility of 2,329% and a 10.30 vol ratio indicates either new negative information about Logunov's mathematical contributions or a liquidity crisis, while the 4¢ cross-venue gap (26¢ on Polymarket vs. 22¢ on Kalshi) suggests arbitrage opportunities in a fragmented market. With 102 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, the 1,014% implied yield on the yes side reflects extreme mispricing risk rather than genuine opportunity—typical of low-volume niche prediction markets where small trades can distort prices dramatically.

Resolution rules

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade