Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

23¢

Bid/Ask 22/30¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $1,549.34·Closes Dec 31, 2026·259d remaining

KXFIELDS-26-ALOG

7-day price22 snapshots · 9 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This illiquid niche market on Aleksandr Logunov has experienced dramatic price appreciation over seven days (9¢ to 22¢), now pricing in a 23% win probability with a concerning 8¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume. The 499% implied yield on the Yes side reflects extreme underpricing relative to the ~$1,550 open interest, suggesting either informed positioning ahead of the Fields Medal announcement or speculative momentum in a market with minimal liquidity to absorb larger positions. With 259 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, traders should be cautious of potential sharp reversals if new information about Logunov's mathematical contributions emerges.

Resolution rules

If Aleksandr Logunov wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.9%

IY (No) 39.7%

Adj IY 159%

CRI 4

Overround 2.4%

LAS 0.36

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	39.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	159%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.36	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/16/2026, 6:13:26 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/16/2026, 6:08:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFIELDS-26-ALOG yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →