Spread: CF Pachuca (-2.5)

This market has collapsed 62% over seven days to just 14¢, pricing in only a 14% probability that Pachuca wins by 3+ goals—an extremely unlikely outcome in Liga MX play. With zero 24-hour volume despite $68.856 in open interest and a massive 37,276% implied yield on the Yes side, this appears to be a stranded position with no liquidity to exit, creating a classic "dead market" scenario just 6 days before resolution. The extreme volatility metrics (6,814% realized vol, 5.03 vol ratio) and high cliff risk index suggest this was likely a failed arbitrage or liquidation event rather than genuine price discovery.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for April 22 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "CF Pachuca" if CF Pachuca win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Club Tijuana". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligamx.net. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

Regime

Trade