Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 34¢ price reflects a 34% probability of Extended reaching $300M FDV within one day of launch, but the 273.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to the risk-reward, particularly given the token's 165% realized volatility and neutral market regime.
Analysis
The 34¢ price reflects a 34% probability of Extended reaching $300M FDV within one day of launch, but the 273.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to the risk-reward, particularly given the token's 165% realized volatility and neutral market regime. With only $3,058 in 24-hour volume against $50.6K open interest, liquidity is notably thin for a market with 259 days to expiry, creating potential execution challenges and widening the 3¢ spread. The modest 3-point uptick over seven days and low 0.3/h information arrival rate indicate limited recent catalyst activity, though the cliff risk index of 2 warrants attention to launch timing uncertainty.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xcc59c2569d30b4b86993f3ff17bb900fffc56e7d98f1a5b02793fc9c133db99a yes 100