US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

This nuclear reactor licensing market shows a notable 4¢ cross-venue gap (27¢ on Polymarket vs. 23¢ on Kalshi), suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity favoring the No side. The extreme 330% implied yield on Yes positions combined with minimal 24-hour volume ($0) and thin $9,183 open interest indicates low liquidity and likely illiquidity-driven pricing distortions rather than genuine conviction about NRC licensing timelines. The 730% realized volatility and 5¢ spread are exceptionally high relative to the market size, signaling this is a speculative, thinly-traded contract where the 27% probability may not reflect fundamental expectations for a new reactor license within 258 days.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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