Will Chris Mathys advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Chris Mathys advance from the CA-22 Primary?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.57M open interest, suggesting the OI may be stale or concentrated among few positions.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.57M open interest, suggesting the OI may be stale or concentrated among few positions. The astronomical 10,548% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 13 Cliff Risk Index and 3,489% realized volatility indicates severe mispricing or a thin market vulnerable to manipulation, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable. With 46 days to the June 2026 primary and a 10¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently priced prediction.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0xe2ad1cbb1806ce5e3993894b52ade4f7e208734a5ca0fd3eee14e8dfc2ae0bcb yes 100