SimpleFunctions

Baltimore Orioles win more than 84.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season

Baltimore Orioles is priced at 14¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 12¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #16 of 16 inside MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals.

Open on PolymarketView JSONEnter terminal

Price history

14¢ current

−18¢
25¢
May 9, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "O 84.5" if the Baltimore Orioles win more than 84.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Baltimore Orioles to record more than 84.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 84.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

Baltimore Orioles

Rank

#16 of 16

Leader

Chicago White Sox 91¢

Range

14¢-91¢

Family volume

$79K

Identifier

0xe85d2c98...f9c6

Jun 8, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 27m ago

Implied probability

14¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 8, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 27m ago

Bid

12¢

Ask

17¢

Spread

5¢

Reported volume

$386

Family rank

#16 of 16

16 outcomes · MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals

Closes

Oct 5, 2026

Family volume

$79K

Orderbook snapshot

12 / 17¢

Polymarket
5¢ spread
BidSize
100¢70
12¢4
AskSize
17¢2
30¢100
32¢100
34¢100
35¢100
37¢100
39¢100
44¢100

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "O 84.5" if the Baltimore Orioles win more than 84.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Baltimore Orioles to record more than 84.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 84.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Oct 5, 2026

Identifier

0xe85d2c98…f9c6

SF Signal
SF Index
607.07
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at —.

View counterpart

Event family

MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$79K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Chicago White Sox 91¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Chicago White Sox

polymarket · 0xbd5e702534c99e27ee625f3c9281464c9d9e391317fa700324de6f63c215a798

91¢
$26K$0—

Milwaukee Brewers

polymarket · 0x5d72a1a1761682b3855c0d49f0c4161574bc65cc2b77750b10de22bd237416f5

91¢
$624$00.1

Cleveland Guardians

polymarket · 0x5acf91a1ec3866295fed2139742d380ffa68fd197ee2f58b2e7594317d44ec4d

91¢
$468$00.2

Los Angeles Dodgers

polymarket · 0x786dcfcad0134d3a5c6c7933207e1041d95f63af0ea42ee800cc592e9f3fed6d

67¢
$4K$00.3

San Diego Padres

polymarket · 0xb4e6e267453558041f62c4114c23df0660b49ca29a1e88f943a79e538ff45845

62¢
$402$00.1

Arizona Diamondbacks

polymarket · 0xa6e830a2b39949524c58e7ab4977e992a3463a0c36e63f6bab44e0f531092180

61¢
$336$0—

Miami Marlins

polymarket · 0xfc908b1d7ba8020a4508756554aaf5042b4be8cab8a8d35bd7622bf18bb352a5

53¢
$23K$00.5

Pittsburgh Pirates

polymarket · 0x040d2a8549a0652aaaa12f634bfa8aefe81b4238836691c94699ba5f0d4662f8

49¢
$5K$00.3

Houston Astros

polymarket · 0x24e16c617c114cd32afbb2dc7c6f14a9fabc5c7eb04b1c377ac215eee1ac227a

49¢
$3K$400.4

Seattle Mariners

polymarket · 0x18ea0e3d1a4e01d397d27c075418c4c503f6c4d361cd0acd68f6ca69cb02517e

44¢
$4K$00.3

Athletics

polymarket · 0xe1f7738825ecb84c58838737ac860a452dbbaa454217683a2acd7feb939d155b

35¢
$3K$1060.8

Colorado Rockies

polymarket · 0x3c2688a98b98d826a617d4230b722a88c44d2e39a7a3441bbfc65a38889684b8

34¢
$927$00.2

Cincinnati Reds

polymarket · 0x52fa6e23ffbfb3becb559844d778723d81c7174e5da0715355af406e5308a54b

34¢
$547$1270.7

Toronto Blue Jays

polymarket · 0xdf12355081cd896d27ff01031bddd00ed0f52671416ca53d45f0015f39913c3b

30¢
$6K$1020.3

Boston Red Sox

polymarket · 0xfb3e0b1be7c5f091a5764911442c125e8800b8b895207df8bead9f35d17c6bd8

25¢
$462$40.6

Baltimore Orioles

polymarket · 0xe85d2c9896019f4f998f444648b5748a96f90bc5e8fd78cb6e07dfbb2aecf9c6

14¢
$386$00.4

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1888.5%

IY (No)

50.0%

Adj IY

607%

CRI

6

Overround

13.7%

LAS

0.36

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)
1888.5%
IY (No)
50.0%
Adj IY
607%
CRI
6
Overround
13.7%
LAS
0.36

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinionessay

Prediction market liquidity: why depth matters more than volume for serious traders

Why orderbook depth matters more than volume for prediction market traders. Real Kalshi examples, liquidity scoring framework, and how to avoid slippage.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Conceptmethodology

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.

Event Probability API

Read 14% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.

World State API

Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.

Hedging Workflows

Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.