MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that a specific team will finish with a particular number of wins in the 2026 MLB regular season. The current 81% probability for the leading contract reflects asymmetric confidence among traders rather than even odds. Win total predictions depend heavily on roster stability, injury developments throughout the season, and trading activity at the deadline. The start of the regular season on March 28, 2026 (already underway) and ongoing performance data will continuously resolve uncertainty as teams accumulate actual wins. As the season progresses, opening-day expectations will be replaced by live performance, making early-season results—particularly the first 50 games—a critical catalyst that either validates or contradicts preseason win projections.

• ›Current contract prices (Athletics 33¢, Pirates 38¢) suggest market skepticism about lower-end win totals, while mid-range teams (Giants 51¢, Mariners/Astros 61¢) show tighter consensus
• ›Trading volume is concentrated on Athletics (24h volume of $31), indicating active disagreement on that specific outcome versus minimal recent trading on other contracts
• ›Win total contracts are binary outcomes dependent on final regular-season records (162 games), making cumulative performance through June a strong early indicator of which contracts remain viable
• ›Roster composition and injury rates directly affect win projections; teams with significant mid-season injuries or roster changes will deviate from preseason expectations
• ›The 20-contract structure with highest contract at 81% and runner-up at 64% indicates no single outcome is heavily favored, reflecting genuine distribution of possible final records across multiple teams

What moved the line

• Jun 12026 Regular Season Win Totals: Seattle Mariners↑7pp26→33¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 32026 Regular Season Win Totals: Athletics↑6pp50→56¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 22026 Regular Season Win Totals: Los Angeles Angels↑6pp24→30¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 72026 Regular Season Win Totals: Houston Astros↓4pp24→20¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 52026 Regular Season Win Totals: Pittsburgh Pirates↓4pp53→49¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds