Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. SpaceX achieving 200+ launches in 2026 is priced at just 15¢ on Polymarket versus 8¢ on Kalshi, representing a notable 7-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap that suggests potential mispricing.
Analysis
SpaceX achieving 200+ launches in 2026 is priced at just 15¢ on Polymarket versus 8¢ on Kalshi, representing a notable 7-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap that suggests potential mispricing. The 801.9% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high, but the zero 24-hour volume and thin $6,008.93 open interest indicate severe illiquidity that makes this spread difficult to trade. SpaceX completed roughly 67 launches in 2024 and would need to nearly triple that pace to hit 200 in 2026—a significant operational acceleration that the market's low probability assessment appears justified in doubting, though the extreme yield and venue divergence warrant caution.
Also on kalshi at 8¢(Δ +6¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xec9e92f27a98bc29028aec518993330e7920ac35f40fdea3c51e11d6ddc6acde yes 100