Will Heath Fulkerson advance from the CA-04 primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Heath Fulkerson advance from the CA-04 primary election?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with an 8985.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 8¢ price significantly undervalues Fulkerson's chances relative to the No side's modest 67.9% yield.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with an 8985.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 8¢ price significantly undervalues Fulkerson's chances relative to the No side's modest 67.9% yield. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $14,158 open interest and a 3¢ spread indicates illiquidity that likely explains the distorted pricing, as thin markets often fail to efficiently incorporate information. With 47 days to the June 2, 2026 close and a concerning Cliff Risk Index of 12, this appears to be a speculative position that may not reflect Fulkerson's actual primary viability in CA-04.
Resolution rules
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Trade
sf trade 0xed129861c6e573b1b5bbe1817b16bf5ea047630ef14bdb7ac6994252281cfe38 yes 100