Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Polymarket, closing May 27, 2026. The 27-cent cross-venue gap between Polymarket (63¢) and Kalshi (90¢) represents a significant arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing Aston Villa's top-4 finish substantially higher despite identical resolution criteria.
Analysis
The 27-cent cross-venue gap between Polymarket (63¢) and Kalshi (90¢) represents a significant arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing Aston Villa's top-4 finish substantially higher despite identical resolution criteria. With only 40 days to expiry and the 2025–26 season likely well underway or concluded by resolution date, the extremely high implied yields (537% for Yes, 1557% for No) reflect the binary nature of the outcome rather than genuine alpha. The low 24-hour volume of $80.33 against $11.9k open interest suggests limited liquidity on Polymarket, making the Kalshi price potentially more reliable for directional conviction.
Also on kalshi at 90¢(Δ -27¢)
Resolution rules
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings for the 2025–26 season. If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official English Premier League tiebreaking procedures. If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0xf4e3ed7607fd945a06ab045076f808e9fe6488fed1d56b924b7eb6836fdf9d1f yes 100