Will Aston Villa finish in the top 6 in the 2025-26 English Premier League season?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will Aston Villa finish in the top 6 in the 2025-26 English Premier League season?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing May 25, 2026. The 89¢ price reflects overwhelming confidence in Aston Villa's top-6 finish, but the 26-cent gap versus Polymarket's 63¢ suggests significant cross-venue disagreement, with Kalshi pricing substantially higher odds.
Analysis
The 89¢ price reflects overwhelming confidence in Aston Villa's top-6 finish, but the 26-cent gap versus Polymarket's 63¢ suggests significant cross-venue disagreement, with Kalshi pricing substantially higher odds. With only 38 days to resolution and minimal 24-hour volume of $42.72, liquidity is extremely thin, making the extreme 8631.8% implied yield on the "No" side largely theoretical and vulnerable to sharp repricing as the season concludes. The 7-point price rise over the past week (86¢ to 90¢) combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicates high sensitivity to late-season developments, particularly if Villa's actual standing diverges from current expectations.
Also on polymarket at 63¢(Δ +35¢)
Resolution rules
If Aston Villa is a Top 6 Finisher in the 2025-26 English Premier League season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLTOP6-26-AVL yes 100