What is the current probability for "Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 52¢ (52% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on September 30, 2026. 157 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 242.6% and 224.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Polymarket, closing September 30, 2026.

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52¢

Bid/Ask 38/65¢·Spread 27¢·Vol $0·OI $581.323·Closes Sep 30, 2026·157d remaining

0xf9b391ee8fdb99e6497872c8c48b9c710972c0400180abc68d80f2e6110d5024

7-day price23 snapshots · 2 regime

52¢52¢ current

Apr 2540¢Apr 26

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 242.6%

IY (No) 224.0%

Adj IY 69%

CRI 1

Overround 1.8%

LAS 0.43

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	242.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	224.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	69%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.43	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

27¢

Computed

4/26/2026, 10:03:32 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/26/2026, 9:53:28 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xf9b391ee8fdb99e6497872c8c48b9c710972c0400180abc68d80f2e6110d5024 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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