Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Candidate M | 49.5% |
Abelardo de la Espriella | 39.5% |
Iván Cepeda Castro | 33.5% |
Juan Carlos Pinzón | 12.0% |
Paloma Valencia | 7.7% |
Sergio Fajardo (DC) | 5.5% |
Juan Manuel Galán (NL) | 0.4% |
CurrentVicky Dávila (IND) | 0.4% |
Claudia López (IND) | 0.4% |
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) | 0.4% |
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) | 0.3% |
Germán Vargas Lleras (RC) | 0.3% |
David Luna Sánchez (IND) | 0.3% |
Mauricio Cárdenas | 0.3% |
Roy Barreras | 0.2% |
Enrique Peñalosa | 0.1% |
Gustavo Bolívar (HC) | 0.1% |
Daniel Quintero | 0.1% |
Person J | 0.0% |
Person I | 0.0% |
Candidate P | 0.0% |
Candidate O | 0.0% |
Candidate N | 0.0% |
Person K | 0.0% |
Candidate Q | 0.0% |
Other | 0.0% |
Person L | 0.0% |
Miguel Uribe Turbay (CD) | 0.0% |
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