Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Candidate M | 49.5% |
Abelardo de la Espriella | 38.0% |
CurrentIván Cepeda Castro | 35.5% |
Juan Carlos Pinzón |
Paloma Valencia | 8.0% |
Sergio Fajardo (DC) | 6.5% |
Claudia López (IND) | 0.4% |
Vicky Dávila (IND) | 0.4% |
Roy Barreras | 0.3% |
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) | 0.3% |
David Luna Sánchez (IND) | 0.3% |
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) | 0.3% |
Juan Manuel Galán (NL) | 0.3% |
Mauricio Cárdenas | 0.3% |
Enrique Peñalosa | 0.1% |
Gustavo Bolívar (HC) | 0.1% |
Daniel Quintero | 0.1% |
Germán Vargas Lleras (RC) | 0.1% |
Other | 0.0% |
Person J | 0.0% |
Candidate P | 0.0% |
Candidate Q | 0.0% |
Candidate O | 0.0% |
Candidate N | 0.0% |
Person L | 0.0% |
Person K | 0.0% |
Person I | 0.0% |
Miguel Uribe Turbay (CD) | 0.0% |
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