Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Candidate M | 49.5% |
Iván Cepeda Castro | 44.0% |
Abelardo de la Espriella | 36.0% |
Paloma Valencia | 9.2% |
Roy Barreras | 4.9% |
Claudia López (IND) | 1.5% |
Sergio Fajardo (DC) | 1.4% |
Carlos Felipe Córdoba | 0.7% |
Daniel Quintero | 0.5% |
Vicky Dávila (IND) | 0.4% |
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) | 0.4% |
David Luna Sánchez (IND) | 0.4% |
Juan Carlos Pinzón | 0.3% |
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) | 0.3% |
Enrique Peñalosa | 0.3% |
Juan Manuel Galán (NL) | 0.1% |
Gustavo Bolívar (HC) | 0.1% |
Germán Vargas Lleras (RC) | 0.1% |
Mauricio Cárdenas | 0.1% |
Person J | 0.0% |
Candidate Q | 0.0% |
Candidate P | 0.0% |
CurrentCandidate O | 0.0% |
Candidate N | 0.0% |
Other | 0.0% |
Person L | 0.0% |
Person K | 0.0% |
Miguel Uribe Turbay (CD) | 0.0% |
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