This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
CurrentBangladesh | 26.0% |
Venezuela | 23.5% |
Tunisia | 16.0% |
Saudi Arabia | 12.5% |
Syria | 11.0% |
Iraq | 11.0% |
Indonesia | 9.9% |
Cuba | 9.5% |
Pakistan | 9.0% |
Malaysia | 9.0% |
Lebanon | 8.1% |
Qatar | 6.0% |
Kuwait | 6.0% |
Afghanistan | 4.5% |
North Korea | 2.2% |