This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Afghanistan | 33.8% |
Pakistan | 15.0% |
Bangladesh | 13.5% |
Syria | 12.5% |
Venezuela | 12.0% |
Tunisia | 11.5% |
Saudi Arabia | 10.7% |
Indonesia | 10.6% |
Malaysia | 10.0% |
Iraq | 8.5% |
Qatar | 7.8% |
Cuba | 7.5% |
Lebanon | 6.6% |
Kuwait | 4.7% |
CurrentNorth Korea | 2.9% |