This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Afghanistan | 33.8% |
Pakistan | 15.0% |
Venezuela | 14.5% |
Bangladesh | 13.5% |
Tunisia | 12.5% |
CurrentSaudi Arabia | 11.6% |
Syria | 11.5% |
Iraq | 10.5% |
Malaysia | 10.0% |
Indonesia | 9.8% |
Qatar | 7.7% |
Lebanon | 6.6% |
Cuba | 6.2% |
Kuwait | 4.3% |
North Korea | 2.9% |
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| 1.0% |
| $3,173 |
| Trade |
Kalshi | 53.0% | $4,377 | Trade |
Kalshi | 8.0% | $2,536 | Trade |