Will bill that mandates the creation and issuance of a $250 U.S. bill featuring Donald J. Trump's likeness becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will bill that mandates the creation and issuance of a $250 U.S. bill featuring Donald J. Trump's likeness becomes la.... This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extraordinarily unlikely outcome at 6 cents, reflecting the extreme improbability of Congress passing legislation to create a $250 Trump bill within 260 days, yet the massive 3,374% implied yield on the Yes side reveals substantial asymmetric payoff potential for contrarian bettors.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extraordinarily unlikely outcome at 6 cents, reflecting the extreme improbability of Congress passing legislation to create a $250 Trump bill within 260 days, yet the massive 3,374% implied yield on the Yes side reveals substantial asymmetric payoff potential for contrarian bettors. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $11,694 open interest and a 2-cent spread suggests thin liquidity and minimal market activity, making this more of a novelty position than an actively traded contract. The neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk index (24) indicate no immediate catalysts or structural concerns, though the fundamental political and monetary policy barriers to passage remain prohibitively high.
Resolution rules
If bill that mandates the creation and issuance of a $250 U.S. bill featuring Donald J. Trump's likeness becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX250DOLLARBILL-27-JAN01 yes 100