Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing October 4, 2027. This market is severely illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 49¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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50¢

Bid/Ask 43/46¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $1,779.71·Closes Oct 4, 2027·528d remaining

KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-FBOL

7-day price16 snapshots · 29 regime

48¢43¢ current

Apr 838¢Apr 23

Analysis

7d ago

This market is severely illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 49¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 7-day price movement from 44¢ to 48¢ suggests modest recent bullish sentiment, though the extremely tight 1¢ spread indicates minimal market maker activity rather than genuine price discovery. With 536 days to expiry, the 73.8% implied yield on the Yes side appears attractive but reflects the illiquidity premium and low confidence in this thin market rather than a true arbitrage opportunity.

Resolution rules

If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 91.6%

IY (No) 52.1%

Adj IY 43%

CRI 1

LAS 0.07

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	91.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	52.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	43%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 11:02:14 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-FBOL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →