Will PL win the 2026 Brazilian Chamber of Deputies elections
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$270
2 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
388 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will PL win the 2026 Brazilian Chamber of Deputies elections
Will PL win the 2026 Brazilian Chamber of Deputies elections?: PL
KXBRDEP-26OCT04-PL
Cluster 2
Will União Progressista win the 2026 Brazilian Chamber of Deputies elections
Will União Progressista win the 2026 Brazilian Chamber of Deputies elections?: União Progressista
KXBRDEP-26OCT04-UPRO
Analysis
The market is pricing a 44% chance that Brazil's Liberal Party (PL) will win the most seats in the 2026 Chamber of Deputies elections. This reflects uncertainty about whether the center-right opposition can consolidate enough support to gain congressional plurality against President Lula's coalition. The probability hinges on current polling trends, fragmentation across competing parties, and alignment decisions by coalition partners before the October 2026 election. The elections themselves on October 4, 2026 will definitively settle this outcome. Recent economic conditions and approval ratings for both the government and opposition influence how voters may shift support over the coming months.
- ›Current polling data showing PL's relative strength compared to other major parties like União Progressista, PT, and MDB
- ›Historical fragmentation patterns in Brazilian congressional elections and whether voters consolidate around major opposition brands
- ›Coalition-building dynamics and whether smaller parties align with PL or distribute support across competing center-right alternatives
- ›Government approval ratings and economic conditions between now and October 2026, which typically influence mid-term congressional performance
- ›Electoral rule structure and threshold effects that determine which parties achieve plurality status with the seats they win
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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