What is the current probability for "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4639.4% and 4.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market prices BTC between $105k-$109.99k on Jan 1, 2027 at just 3¢, implying only a 3% probability despite over 250 days to expiry and $81k open interest.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 3/3¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $537.54·OI $85,962.47·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B107500

Analysis

4d ago

This market prices BTC between $105k-$109.99k on Jan 1, 2027 at just 3¢, implying only a 3% probability despite over 250 days to expiry and $81k open interest. The extreme 4555% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 32 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant tail risk pricing, though the modest $3.2k daily volume and 1¢ spread indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The narrow $5k resolution band in a volatile asset class appears to be the primary driver of the low probability, rather than fundamental bearishness on BTC's medium-term trajectory.

Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12 AM EST is between 105000.00-109999.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4639.4%

IY (No) 4.4%

Adj IY 2320%

CRI 32

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4639.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2320%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:06:35 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B107500 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →