What is the current probability for "Where will Jean-Philippe Mateta go next?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 35¢ (35% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 9, 2026. 171 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Where will Jean-Philippe Mateta go next?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 498.5% and 91.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Where will Jean-Philippe Mateta go next?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Where will Jean-Philippe Mateta go next?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Where will Jean-Philippe Mateta go next?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing October 9, 2026. This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and $0 open interest, making it effectively non-tradeable despite the 10¢ spread.

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35¢mid

Bid/Ask 30/40¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Oct 9, 2026·171d remaining

KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JMATETA-CRY

7-day price4 snapshots · 6 regime

41¢30¢ current

Apr 161¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and $0 open interest, making it effectively non-tradeable despite the 10¢ spread. The 41¢ stable price over seven days suggests minimal recent activity, though the extremely high implied yield of 302.4% on the Yes side indicates the market is pricing in a very low probability event—likely reflecting skepticism that Mateta will return to Crystal Palace specifically. With 174 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than an actively traded contract.

Resolution rules

If Jean-Philippe Mateta's next club is Crystal Palace before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.5%

IY (No) 91.6%

Adj IY 166%

CRI 2

Overround -0.3%

LAS 0.33

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	91.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	166%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.33	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/21/2026, 5:45:15 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 5:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JMATETA-CRY yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →