Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Polymarket, closing December 9, 2026. The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, declining from 40¢ to 30¢ over seven days, suggesting traders are increasingly skeptical that the Fed will maintain rates at 3.75% through end-2026.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, declining from 40¢ to 30¢ over seven days, suggesting traders are increasingly skeptical that the Fed will maintain rates at 3.75% through end-2026. The 361% annualized yield on the "Yes" side reflects extreme compensation for tail risk, though the 4¢ spread and $24.8M open interest indicate reasonable liquidity for a binary event 236 days out. With realized volatility at 266% and a vol ratio of 1.42, the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty around Fed policy trajectory, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional bias beyond the recent selloff.
Also on kalshi at 28¢(Δ -4¢)
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
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Trade
sf trade 0xf88da08f18b2026d986d67508141ec7c13614d87a6ff0f5315edfce4df643165 yes 100