What is the current probability for "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4639.4% and 4.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market prices BTC between $110k-$115k on Jan 1, 2027 at just 3¢ with an extreme 4552.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe underpricing relative to current BTC levels or a significant liquidity crunch.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 3/3¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $144.99·OI $92,424.15·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B112500

7-day price13 snapshots · 43 regime

3¢3¢ current

Apr 132¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market prices BTC between $110k-$115k on Jan 1, 2027 at just 3¢ with an extreme 4552.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe underpricing relative to current BTC levels or a significant liquidity crunch. The $86k open interest against only $4.9k daily volume indicates illiquidity and potential difficulty unwinding positions, while the 32 Cliff Risk Index signals elevated tail risk. With 259 days to expiry and a tight $5k resolution band, this appears mispriced given BTC's current price trajectory, though the neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action suggest the market hasn't yet repriced this opportunity.

Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12 AM EST is between 110000.00-114999.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4639.4%

IY (No) 4.4%

Adj IY 2320%

CRI 32

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4639.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2320%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:07:54 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B112500 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →