Will Chad Bianco finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Chad Bianco finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. The market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1389.5% implied yield on Yes contracts versus just 5.7% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of the Bianco outcome relative to risk-adjusted returns.
Analysis
The market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1389.5% implied yield on Yes contracts versus just 5.7% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of the Bianco outcome relative to risk-adjusted returns. Liquidity is notably thin at just $298 open interest with a wide 7¢ spread, creating execution challenges despite the compelling yield differential. The price has tripled from 2¢ to 6¢ over seven days while still trading at only 14¢ with 412 days to expiry, indicating either emerging information about Bianco's viability or potential mispricing in an illiquid market with elevated cliff risk (16).
Resolution rules
If Chad Bianco finishes in 3rd place in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCAGOV3RD-26JUN02-3-CBIA yes 100