Will Romeu Zema finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$400
6 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
375 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 2
Will Augusto Cury finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 3
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 4
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 5
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 6
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Analysis
This contract resolves based on whether Romeu Zema finishes in exactly third place in Brazil's first-round presidential voting in 2026. At 16% probability, markets price this outcome as unlikely but material. The low probability reflects that Zema faces competition from other center-right and right-wing candidates for the third position, including figures like Ronaldo Caiado (priced at 14%) and various Bolsonaro family members. Zema's probability could rise if he gains momentum as a moderate alternative or if leading candidates consolidate support, pushing others into third. The outcome resolves on October 2, 2026, when Brazilians cast their ballots. Pre-election polling in the months preceding the vote will be the primary signal for movement in this contract, as it indicates whether Zema is tracking toward third place rather than fourth or lower finishes.
- ›Zema's polling position relative to other right-of-center candidates in the 2-3 months before October 2026
- ›Whether fragmentation among right-wing candidates allows one to break through or if votes consolidate around fewer names
- ›Lula's position as frontrunner (he's priced at 19% to finish third, suggesting most expect him in the top two), which affects how many candidates compete for positions 2-4
- ›Regional strength of Zema in Minas Gerais and whether that translates to national viability sufficient for third place
- ›Any endorsements or coalition-building involving Zema that clarify his competitive positioning versus other center-right contenders
What moved the line
- Sep 18Renan Santos↑27pp23→50¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Augusto Cury↓15pp47→32¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Augusto Cury↑14pp27→41¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Renan Santos↓13pp36→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Renan Santos↓7pp50→43¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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