Will Romeu Zema finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$123
7 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
470 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 2
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 3
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 4
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 5
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 6
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 7
Will Romeu Zema finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Analysis
This market estimates a 21% chance that Romeu Zema, the current governor of Minas Gerais, finishes in third place in the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether Zema can consolidate enough support among centrist and right-wing voters to secure a podium finish ahead of other viable candidates. The main factors driving this level are Zema's regional base in Minas Gerais, his positioning as a centrist alternative, and competition from established national figures. The Brazilian presidential election scheduled for October 2026 will serve as the ultimate resolution point, though primary dynamics and candidate consolidation patterns over the coming months will significantly shape his viability. Early polling data and any announcements about coalition-building or party support would clarify his trajectory.
- ›Zema's polling performance relative to other right-of-center and centrist candidates in national surveys leading into October 2026
- ›Whether Zema receives endorsements or coalition support from major parties and established political figures
- ›Voter concentration in Minas Gerais (his strongest base) compared to national vote distribution across multiple candidates
- ›How fragmented the centrist and right-wing vote becomes among competing candidates in the first round
- ›Any significant political developments or controversies affecting Zema's viability between now and the election
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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