Will Romeu Zema finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract resolves based on whether Romeu Zema finishes in exactly third place in Brazil's first-round presidential voting in 2026. At 16% probability, markets price this outcome as unlikely but material. The low probability reflects that Zema faces competition from other center-right and right-wing candidates for the third position, including figures like Ronaldo Caiado (priced at 14%) and various Bolsonaro family members. Zema's probability could rise if he gains momentum as a moderate alternative or if leading candidates consolidate support, pushing others into third. The outcome resolves on October 2, 2026, when Brazilians cast their ballots. Pre-election polling in the months preceding the vote will be the primary signal for movement in this contract, as it indicates whether Zema is tracking toward third place rather than fourth or lower finishes.

• ›Zema's polling position relative to other right-of-center candidates in the 2-3 months before October 2026
• ›Whether fragmentation among right-wing candidates allows one to break through or if votes consolidate around fewer names
• ›Lula's position as frontrunner (he's priced at 19% to finish third, suggesting most expect him in the top two), which affects how many candidates compete for positions 2-4
• ›Regional strength of Zema in Minas Gerais and whether that translates to national viability sufficient for third place
• ›Any endorsements or coalition-building involving Zema that clarify his competitive positioning versus other center-right contenders

What moved the line

• Jul 30Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva↑18pp1→19¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 29Ronaldo Caiado↑3pp16→19¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 29Renan Santos↓3pp58→55¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds