What is the current probability for "Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 85¢ (85% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 17, 2026. 22 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 494.5% and 5542.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Miami Grand Prix: Top 10 Finishers. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 3950% implied yield on the No side versus 352% on Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the negligible $0 trading volume and minimal $117 open interest.

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85¢

Bid/Ask 77/85¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $117·Closes May 17, 2026·22d remaining

KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-PIA

7-day price39 snapshots · 1 regime

77¢77¢ current

Apr 875¢Apr 13

Analysis

8d ago

This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 3950% implied yield on the No side versus 352% on Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the negligible $0 trading volume and minimal $117 open interest. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract's notional value, and the 85¢ price appears overconfident for an event 31 days out involving a top-10 finish prediction for a specific driver. With a Cliff Risk Index of 3 and the massive No-side yield, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to trust the pricing and warrants caution for any meaningful position.

Resolution rules

If Oscar Piastri finishes in the top 10 in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 494.5%

IY (No) 5542.8%

Adj IY 2771%

CRI 3

Overround 8.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	494.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5542.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2771%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	8.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.636

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 9:03:55 PM

Observability directEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/25/2026, 8:53:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-PIA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →