Will Raúl Castro be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Raúl Castro be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $478 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $478 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The Yes side offers an exceptional 400.8% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the No side's 49.5% yield, though this asymmetry may reflect the illiquidity rather than genuine arbitrage. The 6-cent spread is wide relative to the total position size, and the recent 6-cent price decline over seven days combined with 259 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 3 suggests this market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish confidence in either direction.
Resolution rules
If Raúl Castro has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-RCAS yes 100