Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?
Prediction markets currently give a 66% probability that Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?. This contract trades at 66¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1,672 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 71¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1,672 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 71¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The massive 353% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing or that market participants view a Wilson advancement as highly unlikely despite the 71% pricing, creating a notable valuation disconnect. With 201 days to expiry and a 6¢ spread, this remains a thin, speculative market best suited for informed Alaska politics specialists rather than general traders.
Also on polymarket at 72¢(Δ -6¢)
Resolution rules
If Bernadette Wilson advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-BWIL yes 100