Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?

This illiquid market shows Click Bishop at 40¢ on Kalshi versus 45¢ on Polymarket, suggesting modest underpricing on Kalshi with a 5-cent cross-venue gap. The 288% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 198-day timeframe, though the near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) and modest $871 open interest indicate thin liquidity that may explain the yield distortion. The recent 6-cent price decline over seven days (33¢ to 39¢) warrants monitoring as a potential signal shift, though low trading activity limits confidence in the move's significance.

Resolution rules

If Click Bishop advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade