Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?

This market on Tom Begich advancing from Alaska's top-four primary is pricing in a 77% probability but shows severe liquidity constraints with only $853 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 77¢ price potentially unreliable. The extreme 424.5% implied yield on the "No" side and 3.52 volatility ratio suggest the market is pricing in tail risk or suffering from thin order books rather than genuine uncertainty, with realized volatility at 311% indicating past price swings. With 201 days to expiry and minimal information arrival (1.5 events/hour), this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently priced prediction.

Resolution rules

If Tom Begich advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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