Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor
Leader sits at 93% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 70%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Tom Begich
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
70¢
Bernadette Wilson
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$637
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 31, 2027
451 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Treg Taylor
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-TTAY
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-JKRE
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Tom Begich
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-TBEG
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Matt Heilala
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-MHEI
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Matthew Claman
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-MCLA
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Dave Bronson
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-DBRO
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Click Bishop
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-CBIS
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Bernadette Wilson
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-BWIL
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Bill Walker
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-BWAL
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Adam Crum
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-ACRU
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market expectation that one specific candidate will win Alaska's top-four primary for governor, based on trading activity across nine related contracts. The leader is priced at 90%, indicating high confidence compared to the runner-up at 70%. Movement in this probability would primarily reflect changing assessments of candidate viability, polling data releases, campaign developments, or shifts in voter preference as the primary election approaches. The key catalyst for resolution will be Alaska's primary election itself, which will definitively determine the winner. Until then, traders are weighing candidate momentum, endorsements, fundraising capacity, and regional support patterns to assess the likelihood of each outcome.
- ›The leading contract's 90% price significantly exceeds the runner-up's 70%, suggesting a substantial confidence gap rather than competitive parity between top candidates
- ›Polling data, when available, will be a primary driver of probability shifts—new surveys showing movement in candidate support would likely cause repricing across contracts
- ›Voter registration and turnout patterns in Alaska's specific primary system could materially affect which candidates advance, independent of statewide polling
- ›Campaign spending, endorsements, and media coverage changes in the months before the primary will provide real-time information affecting market prices
- ›The timing of the primary election date serves as the resolution point; probabilities should compress as that date approaches and become increasingly informative
What moved the line
- May 30Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins↑14pp22→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Bill Walker↑8pp10→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Bill Walker↑7pp18→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Click Bishop↑7pp32→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Matt Heilala↑6pp5→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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