Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor
Leader sits at 94% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 87%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Tom Begich
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
87¢
Bernadette Wilson
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Aug 31, 2027
387 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Treg Taylor
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-TTAY
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Adam Crum
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-ACRU
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Tom Begich
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-TBEG
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Bernadette Wilson
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-BWIL
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Click Bishop
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-CBIS
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-JKRE
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Bill Walker
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-BWAL
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Dave Bronson
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-DBRO
Analysis
Markets indicate Tom Begich has an 89% probability of winning Alaska's top-four primary for Governor, meaning traders assess he is significantly more likely than competitors to advance from this ranked-choice primary system. The probability reflects Begich's apparent fundraising advantages, polling position, and name recognition relative to competitors like Treg Taylor (27%), Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (68%), and others. Trading volume on Begich contracts remains minimal, suggesting limited recent price discovery, while Taylor contracts show higher activity at $3,079 in 24-hour volume, potentially indicating uncertainty about second-tier positioning. The August 2026 Alaska primary election itself will definitively resolve this market. Key factors include candidate spending patterns, late campaign announcements or endorsements, demographic turnout in Alaska's four regions, and whether independent or third-party candidates affect the ranked-choice calculus.
- ›Tom Begich's contract trades at 92 cents versus Taylor at 27 cents and Kreiss-Tomkins at 68 cents, showing substantial gap between front-runner and competitors
- ›Taylor contracts have generated $3,079 in 24-hour trading volume compared to minimal volume on Begich, suggesting traders more actively reassessing the second-place position
- ›Ranked-choice primary mechanics mean candidates advancing depends on distribution of second and third-choice votes across Alaska's four judicial districts
- ›Recent fundraising reports and campaign cash on hand at filing deadlines would indicate resource advantages affecting ground organization and advertising
- ›August 2026 primary election date is the binding resolution event for all contracts
What moved the line
- Aug 6Bernadette Wilson↑8pp78→86¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Tom Begich↑6pp90→96¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Click Bishop↓6pp39→33¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Bill Walker↓4pp24→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Treg Taylor↑3pp24→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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