Matthew Claman in Alaska's top-four primary for Governor
Matthew Claman is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 32¢ bid, 36¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 14 inside Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor.
Price history
35¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If Matthew Claman advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Matthew Claman
Rank
#5 of 14
Leader
Tom Begich 93¢
Range
1¢-93¢
Family volume
$524
Identifier
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-MCLA
Jun 8, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
32¢
Ask
36¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
#5 of 14
14 outcomes · Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Family volume
$524
Orderbook snapshot
32 / 36¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Matthew Claman advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Identifier
KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-MCLA
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 43¢, -8¢ versus this page.
Event family
Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$524
Outcomes
14
Highest price
Tom Begich 93¢
Current share
0%
Tom Begich
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-TBEG
Bernadette Wilson
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-BWIL
Click Bishop
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-CBIS
Dave Bronson
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-DBRO
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-JKRE
Matthew Claman
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-MCLA
Treg Taylor
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-TTAY
Bill Walker
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-BWAL
Matt Heilala
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-MHEI
Adam Crum
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-ACRU
Edna DeVries
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-EDEV
Lesil McGuire
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-LCMG
Shelley Hughes
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-SHUG
Nancy Dahlstrom
kalshi · KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-NDAH
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.