Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing August 18, 2027. This market shows significant illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a tight 1¢ spread and $2,811 open interest, suggesting limited trader interest in a contract expiring 489 days out.
Analysis
This market shows significant illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a tight 1¢ spread and $2,811 open interest, suggesting limited trader interest in a contract expiring 489 days out. The price has declined sharply from 42¢ to 31¢ over the past week, indicating weakening conviction around Dave Bronson's chances of advancing from Alaska's top-four primary, though the 166.3% implied yield on the Yes side suggests some contrarian positioning. With a low cliff risk index of 2 and neutral regime, this appears to be a relatively stable market, but the lack of trading activity makes the 32¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Also on polymarket at 38¢(Δ -7¢)
Resolution rules
If Dave Bronson advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-DBRO yes 100