Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing August 18, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a notably wide 182.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 26¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a notably wide 182.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 26¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The sharp 7-day rally from 12¢ to 29¢ indicates recent conviction building around Claman's primary prospects, though the thin $1,718 open interest and 489-day timeframe to resolution create significant execution risk for larger positions. The 1¢ spread is deceptively tight given the low liquidity, and the neutral regime score suggests this market lacks strong directional momentum despite the recent price movement.
Also on polymarket at 33¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
If Matthew Claman advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-MCLA yes 100