Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing August 18, 2027. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 672% annualized return on Yes contracts versus just 8.3% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of Matt Heilala's advancement odds at 10 cents.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 672% annualized return on Yes contracts versus just 8.3% on No, suggesting severe underpricing of Matt Heilala's advancement odds at 10 cents. The $919 open interest paired with minimal 24-hour volume ($2.2) and a wide 4-cent spread indicates dangerously low liquidity that could make position entry or exit difficult. With a Cliff Risk Index of 9 and nearly 16 months until the August 2027 close, this appears to be a speculative micro-market where pricing may not reflect true probabilities due to thin trading.
Also on polymarket at 14¢(Δ -4¢)
Resolution rules
If Matt Heilala advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-MHEI yes 100