Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,313 open interest, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable for decision-making.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,313 open interest, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable for decision-making. The 1,473% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a thin, low-probability contract where even small position sizes can generate outsized percentage returns, though the 8 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant binary event risk near expiration. With 201 days until the 11/3/2026 close, there's substantial time for price discovery, but traders should expect wide spreads and difficulty executing meaningful positions in this illiquid Alaska gubernatorial market.
Also on polymarket at 19¢(Δ -5¢)
Resolution rules
If Nancy Dahlstrom advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-NDAH yes 100