Will Nancy Dahlstrom advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

Nancy Dahlstrom's 14¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in her advancement prospects, with an asymmetric risk profile favoring "No" holders (48.3% yield vs. 1824% for "Yes"). The extraordinarily high realized volatility of 1208% and information arrival rate of 2.2 events per hour suggest this market is pricing in significant uncertainty around Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial field, though the $50 daily volume and $16,578 open interest indicate relatively thin liquidity for such a volatile contract with 123 days to expiry.

Resolution rules

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

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