Will the US government be shut down for at least 140 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will the US government be shut down for at least 140 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 1617% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 12.2% on No, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues tail risk despite the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 2383%.
Analysis
This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 1617% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 12.2% on No, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues tail risk despite the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 2383%. The thin liquidity ($19,065 open interest, $1,323 daily volume) and wide 4¢ spread indicate low conviction pricing, while the recent decline from 9¢ to 8¢ over seven days may reflect either genuine probability reassessment or illiquidity-driven noise given the neutral regime score and modest info arrival rate of 0.9/h.
Resolution rules
If the duration of the first US federal government shutdown between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 due to a lapse of appropriations is at least 140 days, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G140 yes 100