Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 23%, Polymarket at 40% — a 17pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
15 contracts
Polymarket
40%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
17pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
18 contracts
Closes
Mar 4, 2027
271 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 23¢ · Polymarket 40¢ · 17pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (23¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (40¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
12 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly” vs “Will there be more than”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T2
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 5 in 2026?: 5
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T5
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?: 4
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T4
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T3
Cluster 2
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 150000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 150,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-150000
Will there be more than 250000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 250,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-250000
Will there be more than 350000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 350,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-350000
Cluster 3
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026
Cluster 4
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity
Cluster 5
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
0x15d2e6…fa1b
Cluster 6
Will Jordan Love lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 7
Will Matthew Stafford lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 8
Will Patrick Mahomes lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 9
Will Bo Nix lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 10
Will Tyler Shough lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 11
Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 12
Will Bryce Young lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Analysis
This question asks whether the federal government will be non-operational for at least 80 cumulative days between mid-February and year-end 2026. The 26% probability reflects moderate concern about extended shutdown scenarios, well below historical precedent. The current estimate appears driven by divided government dynamics and budget negotiations typically concentrated in September-December. Two factors push probabilities in opposite directions: funding deadline pressures (September 30 and December 15 are critical junctures) increase shutdown risk, while recent precedent suggests even contentious negotiations typically produce resolutions before 80-day thresholds are reached. The single largest catalyst will be September 2026 budget negotiations, which historically determine whether Congress can pass appropriations or faces extended standoffs. Without an extraordinary political rupture or budget impasse that month, shutdowns typically remain brief.
- ›Historical US government shutdowns since 1976 have averaged 10-16 days; reaching 80 cumulative days would require multiple extended closures or one unprecedented shutdown
- ›September 30, 2026 and December 15, 2026 are statutory funding deadlines where congressional action is required; outcomes of these negotiations will largely determine shutdown probability
- ›Divided government conditions (if present after 2026 elections) correlate with shutdown risk, but even divided Congresses have typically negotiated resolutions before cumulative 80-day threshold
- ›The 17-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (27%) and Polymarket (10%) suggests disagreement on severity of budget impasse likelihood
- ›Related Kalshi contracts show only 44% probability of 150,000+ federal employee cuts by January 2027, suggesting markets do not price in extreme fiscal confrontation scenarios
What moved the line
- Jun 5OpenAI↑38pp11→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5More than 150,000↓21pp45→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1OpenAI↓7pp17→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5More than 250,000↓7pp11→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Shutdown & Republican Party↑4pp15→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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