Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract asks whether the federal government will experience a shutdown lasting at least 80 cumulative days between mid-February and year-end 2026. At 16%, the market suggests this is unlikely but not negligible. The relatively low probability reflects that while budget disputes occur regularly, sustained shutdowns of this magnitude are rare in recent US history. The probability hinges on two competing dynamics: political gridlock over appropriations bills and spending authority, which would increase shutdown risk, versus political incentives to avoid the economic and public-opinion costs of prolonged shutdowns, which would decrease it. The key catalyst will be the September-October 2026 budget deadline, when Congress must pass funding legislation or trigger another shutdown. Earlier deadlines in the summer months will provide early signals about the political environment and likelihood of a protracted funding dispute by year-end.

• ›Historical baseline: only two shutdowns since 2013 exceeded 20 days; an 80-day aggregate would require either one very long shutdown or multiple extended closures
• ›Political composition matters: divided government and narrow majorities typically increase shutdown frequency; current margins will shape negotiating leverage through fall 2026
• ›September 2026 continuing resolution expires: this is the most probable flashpoint for extended shutdown; market typically reprices sharply after budget deadlines pass
• ›Public approval impacts: prolonged shutdowns historically shift political costs toward the party perceived as obstinate; this incentivizes compromise before reaching 80 days
• ›Treasury resources: the government's ability to prioritize payments and continue certain operations partially mitigates the practical impact of extended appropriations gaps

What moved the line

• Sep 183↑18pp7→25¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 173↓17pp24→7¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 182↑8pp55→63¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 172↓7pp62→55¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Dak Prescott↓6pp14→8¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds