Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$968
10 contracts
Closes
Mar 4, 2027
225 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly” vs “Will there be more than”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T2
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 5 in 2026?: 5
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T5
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?: 4
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T4
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T3
Cluster 2
Will there be more than
Cluster 3
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity
Cluster 4
Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 5
Will Matthew Stafford lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 6
Will Tyler Shough lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Analysis
This contract asks whether the federal government will experience a shutdown lasting at least 80 cumulative days between mid-February and year-end 2026. At 16%, the market suggests this is unlikely but not negligible. The relatively low probability reflects that while budget disputes occur regularly, sustained shutdowns of this magnitude are rare in recent US history. The probability hinges on two competing dynamics: political gridlock over appropriations bills and spending authority, which would increase shutdown risk, versus political incentives to avoid the economic and public-opinion costs of prolonged shutdowns, which would decrease it. The key catalyst will be the September-October 2026 budget deadline, when Congress must pass funding legislation or trigger another shutdown. Earlier deadlines in the summer months will provide early signals about the political environment and likelihood of a protracted funding dispute by year-end.
- ›Historical baseline: only two shutdowns since 2013 exceeded 20 days; an 80-day aggregate would require either one very long shutdown or multiple extended closures
- ›Political composition matters: divided government and narrow majorities typically increase shutdown frequency; current margins will shape negotiating leverage through fall 2026
- ›September 2026 continuing resolution expires: this is the most probable flashpoint for extended shutdown; market typically reprices sharply after budget deadlines pass
- ›Public approval impacts: prolonged shutdowns historically shift political costs toward the party perceived as obstinate; this incentivizes compromise before reaching 80 days
- ›Treasury resources: the government's ability to prioritize payments and continue certain operations partially mitigates the practical impact of extended appropriations gaps
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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